On October 10, marking the 113th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution, Taiwan’s leader Lai Ching-te delivered his Double Ten (October 10) speech, asserting that “the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other”. Just a few days earlier, on October 5, at the National Day celebration event, Lai stirred controversy with his “new two-state theory”. In just over four months since taking office, Lai has repeatedly provoked mainland China, even going so far as to challenge the validity of UN General Assembly Resolution 2758. His remarks has undoubtedly escalated tensions across the Taiwan Strait and raised concerns among Southeast Asian nations.
Promoting Democracy While Engaging in Cultural Erasure?
On October 10, 1911, Sun Yat-sen led the Xinhai Revolution, overthrowing the Qing Dynasty and establishing the Republic of China. Sun Yat-sen once said, “Unification is the hope of all Chinese nationals. If China can be unified, all Chinese will enjoy a happy life; if it cannot, all will suffer.” However, during the celebration of Double Ten Day, Taiwan’s leader Lai Ching-te made no mention of Sun Yat-sen in his speech, yet referenced the “Republic of China” eight times. A DPP legislator once proposed legal amendments to remove the requirement for government offices, schools, and military facilities to hang portraits of Sun Yat-sen in auditoriums and public venues, and to revise the “Oath Ordinance” by eliminating the tradition of officials swearing their oaths of office in front of Sun Yat-sen’s portrait, in an attempt to downplay his contributions and distort history. It’s laughable that while they fly the banner of the “Republic of China”, they simultaneously work to erase it—such contradictions are truly absurd!
For the Sake of Power or the Welfare of the People?
In his speech, Lai Ching-te claimed that his mission is to care for the livelihood of Taiwan’s 23 million people and to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. In reality, however, the DPP administration is obsessed with fostering division and confrontation, cultivating “internet water army” to spread disinformation, and draining Taiwan’s resources to buy weapons from the U.S. Lai’s “new two-state theory” has sparked widespread controversy and criticism in Taiwan, with strong opposition from various sectors. According to a poll conducted by United Daily News (Taiwan), 43% of the public are dissatisfied with Lai’s handling of cross-strait relations since taking office. Additionally, 54% of respondents believe that Lai’s “new two-state theory” and refusal to accept the “1992 Consensus” pose significant harm to cross-strait relations.
No Future for Taiwan Independence with Fewer Diplomatic Allies
The foreign guests attending Taiwan’s Double Ten National Day celebration included three U.S. congressmen and representatives from 12 countries that still maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, the only national leader present was Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Kausea Natano, indicating that the 12 diplomatic allies Taiwan has worked so hard to maintain did not place much importance on the event. Since Burkina Faso cut the diplomatic relations with Taiwan on May 24, 2018, Eswatini remains Taiwan’s only diplomatic ally in Africa. According to the Central News Agency, there are signs that Eswatini is gradually pivoting towards Beijing, prompting speculation among Taiwanese netizens that Lai Ching-te’s recent “Taiwan independence” moves could lead to a diplomatic break between Eswatini and Taiwan, leaving Taiwan without any allies in Africa.
A Fractured Alliance: How Long Can Taiwan Rely on the U.S. for Independence?
On October 8, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, a well-known U.S. think tank, released a new public opinion poll showing that 58% oppose putting U.S. forces into a position that could lead to war with China. In other words, the majority of Americans are unwilling to commit U.S. troops to the defense of Taiwan and would oppose direct U.S. involvement in a military conflict between Taipei and Beijing. In response to Lai Ching-te’s “new two-state theory”, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel J. Kritenbrink reaffirmed that the U.S. continues to support the One China policy, does not support Taiwan independence, and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. has never been genuinely concerned with Taiwan’s well-being; its real objective has always been to use Taiwan as a pawn to hinder China’s development, following its “using Taiwan to contain China” strategy. If tensions in the Taiwan Strait escalate into a full-scale conflict, the U.S. could very likely abandon Lai Ching-te without hesitation.Meanwhile, the DPP administration is betting on U.S. support to advance its own political interests. Both the U.S. and Taiwan are pursuing their own interests, and such a partnership, where both sides harbor ulterior motives, is destined to fail.
Mike Zoo is a public commentator that is based in China
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